With three games to go, the fight for Premier League survival lives on, with many questions still unanswered...
It’s getting hot down there.
Premier League relegation battles very rarely conclude before the final few games; this year is no exception. If it weren’t for Everton’s and particularly Nottingham Forest’s points deductions, then the bottom three would look set in stone. However, with three to play, there’s just two points between Forest, Luton and Burnley; two of those three will lose the battle, but which two?
Nottingham Forest
The Reds' points deduction issue should be resolved by the end of this week. The club’s appeal hearing for their four-point penalty concluded last week, with the decision set to be made public towards the end of this week. It looks unlikely they’ll get anything back, they might get lucky and regain a point, but who knows with these random panels and blurred rules?
Worse case, they remain on 26 points, which still leaves them ahead of the pack. They could have gotten their heads handed to them against Manchester City, but a 2-0 defeat was commendable, particularly for their goal difference, with Forest’s -20 nine better than Luton and twelve healthier than Burnley. That’s despite having the worst set-piece record of any side in the Premier League by a mile.
This effectively means Forest have a two-point advantage over their competitors, barring a huge swing in goal difference, so the Reds are certainly in the driving seat.
Their fixtures are rather favourable too, with a visit to now-relegated Sheffield United, before hosting Chelsea and travelling to Burnley in a bumper last-day showdown.
Should Forest fail to beat the Blades, then there’s an argument that they don’t deserve survival at all. It certainly isn’t a given, though, with Forest failing to beat any opposition away from home in the bottom half, their only two travelling triumphs against 7th-placed Newcastle and 9th-placed Chelsea.
It’s clear that Forest realistically have to beat United, and, if they do, then a point against Chelsea at home should do the job, which all depends on which Chelsea turn up at The City Ground. The last thing they would want is for it to go down to the final day.
Prediction: WLD: 30 points (before appeal result).
Luton Town
A side that many thought wouldn’t be in the conversation at this point, Luton have done incredibly well to be in the mix at this stage. However, the narrative that ‘Luton just won’t go away’ seems rather ridiculous. Rob Edwards’ side have been made to look better simply because of the appalling standard of Sheffield United and Burnley for most of the season, plus the fact that Forest can’t sustain a lead.
The Hatters have just one win in fourteen Premier League games and offer very little apart from grit and belief. Their resolve was a key factor at Molineux on Saturday, worrying Wolves after a late goal, but on the balance of play, Luton were poor and would have been rather fortunate to pick up a point, and that’s without Wolves being outstanding themselves.
They’d have backed themselves to pick up something from Wolves and Brentford, but two below-par performances merited two defeats, leaving it down to their final three. They play host to Everton this Friday, a match that was looking like a relegation showdown a few weeks ago until three consecutive wins at Goodison Park secured the Toffees’ safety.
Everton are strong away from home, but the Kenilworth Road crowd will know the importance of this fixture and are likely to make the place a cauldron under the lights. This looks like their best shot at a victory, with West Ham away to follow before hosting Fulham on the final day.
The Hammers have little to play for at this stage but will be determined to go out on a high at home, with no win at The London Stadium since March. They are likely to have too much for Luton to handle, so it appears to come down to that final-day fixture with Fulham.
Marco Silva’s men are certainly beatable, particularly at the moment and away from home. They boast the fourth worst away record in the league and went down without a fight in their last fixture of this magnitude, a convincing 3-1 defeat at the hands of Forest. Luton certainly haven’t lost faith, and the unity between the players and supporters will remain until the final whistle, it’s now just down to those 11 players to get the job done.
Prediction: WLW: 31 points.
Burnley
Burnley have emerged from their shadows of late; if only we had seen this quality for the entirety of the season. The Clarets have dug out draws and grabbed some crucial wins in their last eight, with only one defeat away at Everton in that period.
However, while their favourable run of fixtures allowed them to accumulate those points, their luck in that department seems to have dwindled, with Newcastle and Spurs to come before Forest last day.
Two points a drift of Forest and safety as it stands, Burnley have to get something out of their next two to realistically give themselves a chance of beating Forest to secure safety on May 19th. Hosting Newcastle probably provides that chance more than visiting the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium does, but that remains a huge ask.
Burnley are unbeaten in three at Turf Moor but Newcastle are in red-hot goalscoring form with 15 goals in their last six games. However, they have struggled against the bottom sides in the league this year, losing to Forest, Everton and Luton, and have pretty much secured European football for next year, so Burnley must target this one as potential for points.
Anything against Tottenham will be a welcome bonus, with the Lilywhites securely sat in fifth place, the only side without a home draw this campaign. That’s a stat that shows Spurs never settle and will relinquish chances, as Vincent Kompany’s side strive for their fourth away win of the season.
If they somehow are still in the fight against Forest then victory will be essential. Forest have been woeful away and, with the home crowd behind them, it would be a tough place for anyone to visit. That being said, the Reds have performed well of late and just haven’t converted their chances, a Burnley victory is far from a formality.
Prediction: DLD: 26 points