The final day of the season brings joy to many a football fan, whether their team has won the league, have finished in the playoffs, survived relegation, or even overperformed throughout the campaign.
Typically, most of these positions are filled going into the final game, and this season is no different, with Portsmouth named champions, Derby needing to better Bolton’s results to guarantee second place, and Bolton and Peterborough both already claiming playoff spots.
Even at the bottom of the table, three of the four relegation spots have already been confirmed, with Carlisle, Port Vale and Fleetwood dropping into League Two, with Cheltenham, Burton or Cambridge trying to avoid that fourth spot.
The most intriguing situation to keep an eye on during Saturday’s fixtures is the race for the last two playoff places, with Barnsley, Lincoln, Oxford United and Blackpool all within a shout, with just two points separating 5th and 8th. Here we analyse who is likely to clinch a spot in the top six, and who will be remaining in League One next season.
Barnsley
Barnsley’s defeat away against Blackpool the previous week has put them in a very precarious position. Despite looking like being contenders for the playoff race just weeks ago, a horrendous run of form could cost them dearly.
They were awful against Blackpool last week. The Seasiders dominated the ball for the first hour of the game, and could, and should, have been out of sight, spurning chance after chance.
Barnsley gave themselves a lifeline, and almost got themselves an unlikely draw, salvaging the score back to 3-2, but it was not enough.
They have now just won 2 of their last 11 games, with those wins coming against an already relegated Carlisle, and a struggling Burton side who could also face the drop.
To make matters even more complicated, Barnsley decided to part with their manager Neil Collins on the 22nd of April, just three days after that loss to Blackpool.
It certainly makes things more interesting going into the final day. Barnsley have the task of facing Northampton Town in front of their own fans, which on paper should seem like a relatively straightforward win at this point in the season.
It will be interesting to see how the Barnsley players react to the sacking of Neil Collins, and whether they will manage to not only overturn their form, but deal with the pressure of knowing that there are three teams below them all vying for their position in the table.
Despite having the most commanding position, their form suggests that Barnsley are the ones to miss out here, and it would be a huge blow for them considering how strong they have been at times this season.
Lincoln
In contrast to Barnsley, Lincoln are looking like the most likely team to secure themselves a position in the playoffs.
Despite an unconvincing first half of the season, Michael Skubala has managed to drastically turn things around. Since the 13th of January, following a 1-1 draw away against Wycombe, Lincoln have only tasted defeat on one occasion, a 2-1 loss at home against Wigan in mid April.
This kind of form puts Lincoln in good stead to not only reach the playoffs, but to go on and win them as well. Confidence will be flying high, and they can certainly score goals, netting a combined 16 goals in 3 games during their March fixtures.
They have also snuck into 6th place, following a huge 1-0 win away against playoff rivals Oxford United, which ultimately saw them drop to 7th.
So, what is stopping Lincoln from confirming a playoff place on the last game of the season? A tough fixture at home against the League One champions Portsmouth.
But, this fixture may not be as difficult as it first seems. Portsmouth have already been promoted, they have nothing to play for, and this showed in their last game.
Despite playing at home, in front of their own fans, in their final home game of the season, they were beaten 2-1 by Wigan.
This should give Lincoln confidence of a result on the final day. They could catch Portsmouth lacking again, and a win over the champions would give them a massive confidence boost going into the playoffs.
Their form suggests Lincoln will certainly be one of the two teams playing in the playoffs this season, but they cannot be overconfident. One slip up here could be costly.
Oxford United
Oxford United had a brilliant start to the season. In their first 16 games, they only dropped points in five of those games, losing three and drawing two.
Things fell apart a little when Liam Manning left Oxford United to become the new Bristol City manager, but Des Buckingham has almost guided Oxford to a playoff campaign.
They have been out of form lately though. On the 12th of March, they suffered a heavy 5-0 loss away against Bolton, but then recorded back to back 4-0 wins against Fleetwood Town and Burton, before going on to beat Peterborough 5-0 at home.
In their last two games however, they suffered a huge 1-0 loss at home against Lincoln, and then drew 1-1 at home against Stevenage. These two results have left them outside of the playoffs, on goal difference.
There is a slightly tricky game waiting for Oxford United on the final day of the season. They travel to Exeter City, who have nothing to play for, but will be hoping to end the season on a high in front of their own fans.
Exeter have been in fine form as well. Unbeaten in their last nine games, with their last loss coming away against Peterborough United, they come into this game looking to cause problems for Oxford.
This is a hard one to call. They need to better either Barnsley or Lincoln’s result, but they could do with a victory to get back to winning ways and get some form behind them before heading into the playoffs.
Blackpool
The final team looking to achieve a spot in the playoffs are Blackpool. Despite having very poor away form, having won just seven times away from home all season, they find themselves wishing touching distance of another chance of promotion to the Championship.
Despite their form away from home costing them a lot of points which could have seen them already promoted, they have picked up some impressive wins on the road.
Their 4-0 win away against Portsmouth will be one of their highlights of the season, demolishing the champions with a strong, confident performance. They have also picked up a 1-0 win against Barnsley, showing they can beat the teams around them away from home.
Their home form, in contrast, has been brilliant this season. Their win against Barnsley last weekend meant they have won 14 out of their 23 home games in the league this season, and have only tasted defeat three times, against Derby, Peterborough and Northampton.
There is a lot of uncertainty around Blackpool this season though, and consistency has been their main issue. When it looks like they are about to go on a good run of results following a big win, they lose away from home.
It is a shame then, for Blackpool fans at least, that their last game of the season is in fact away from home, as they travel to Reading.
It is a tough one to judge at Reading, their points deduction has them lower than they should be, and their form is so inconsistent that it is hard to decide whether they are a tough side to play or not.
No matter what, it will be a tight game between the two sides. Blackpool struggle away from home, and their last nine games have all been 0-0 draws, or settled by the single goal.
This is one of the more intriguing ties that are left to play. If Blackpool can put their away day blues behind them, it might not still be enough, as they need at least two of the other teams to drop points as well.
We have a brilliant final day in store in League One this weekend. With so much to play for, and four teams in the hunt, there is sure to be a lot of drama involved.
Lincoln should make it. Their form suggests they will hang on to a spot in the top six, despite playing the champions, and Barnsley are the most likely team to miss out, unless their players react to their manager being sacked.
Then it all comes down to Oxford United and Blackpool. If Blackpool cannot put in a good away performance, then Oxford need not worry. But if this is one of those games where Blackpool turn up, then Oxford will need to win their tricky tie against Exeter. Blackpool should just miss out here though.