Football has always been a game of fine margins. Teams all around the world compete to gain an advantage over their opposition in order to enhance their players output on the game. With the Premier League's relegation battle heating up, is now the time for data analysts to suggest ways that their teams can statistically outplay those against them. In Brentford's situation the risk of altering parts of their game plan based on what data portrays as strengths to them, could be influential to scoring and conceding less goals.
Statistics in football promotes quite a controversial topic between fans to whether data that is measured has an impact on performance. It's easy to put together for an against arguments to why statistics can be considered either important or irrelevant to the game of football however there is no doubt that research conducted by the Premier league on a regular basis provides a great insight to how teams look to strategies when playing.
It was another thoroughly devastating defeat for the Bees this weekend as Burnley were the side left buzzing. The 2-1 loss at Turf Moor now means Thomas Frank's men have only picked up 4 points in their last 15 games, leaving them in a very vulnerable position and perhaps desperate to use statistics more to highlight where they're going wrong. Arguably the game against Burnley was a write off from the first five minutes when Sergio Reguilon was sent off for a silly challenge in the penalty area. Burnley were able to punish and strike the Bees with wave after wave of attacks and it was clear the players just couldn't handle the intensity of the clarets.
In sport the research you use to achieve reliable and valid data all depends on the sporting environment you're in. There are five types of research methods that most clubs in the Premier League will use and they are:
Primary Research
Secondary Research
Mixed methods Research
Quantitative Research
Qualitative Research
Regarding Brentford the statistics to review and note will first be conducted as primary research (In person) and then shared as secondary research (external sources). So, using Secondary Research of statistics, how can Brentford look to come out of the international break with some new tricks up their sleeve?
Statistic 1: Crosses
Crossing in football for a lot of teams can be a key route to increasing chance creation and scoring goals. Luton Town have produced the most crosses this season with 660 and this style of plan to get wide and whip in a cross has benefited them in going toe-to-toe with some of the best teams in the league.
Brentford themselves have produced 518 crosses this season and after Kristoffer Ajer headed home from a Bryan Mbeumo cross at the weekend perhaps they should be looking to enter wide areas more. Of course, to score from a cross there are considerations to be made, the delivery has to be almost perfect in order for a player to make something out of a ball whipped into them. However, with the shear height and power Brentford have with a player such as Ivan Toney in the box, he wouldn't love anything more than having consistent looping balls to attack. Even though the rate of crosses Brentford are producing is high they could do more.
During the Qatar world cup 45 out of the 172 goals scored were crosses this works out to around a 26.16 percentage. For a team who struggle to create playing through teams and now with the return of Bryan Mbeumo, Brentford are in the ideal position to mix up their play and throw a few more crosses into the box because as a good aerial team their percentage of winning a first ball will be considerably higher compared to others.
Statistic 2: Tackles
Tackling is another fundamental factor in football, the ability of being able to win the ball back and then retain possession can be massive in helping teams progress up the pitch more dangerously.
Having played defensively all season there is no surprise to Brentford being near the top of the most tackles made list and whilst many may see this as a negative it can actually be a positive in many ways. Brentford have made 539 tackles this season. To many this will suggest the side have been on the back foot all campaign and whilst this is partially truthful as seen from recent fixtures, knowing the side has attempted that many challenges could influence tactical tweaks.
Thomas Frank could lure teams into trying to play through midfield lines where typically they will face the compact energetic likes of Frank Onyeka, Vitaly Janelt and Christian Norgaard. Forcing teams to try and drive their way around players could lead to an increase in tackles/interceptions and if the turnover is fast, then the player who have won the ball should have attackers running off it. Frank's team is capable of achieving these turnovers through tackles. Before his injury Aaron Hickey was ranked 3rd in the Premier League with a 94% successful tackle rate.
Statistic 3: long balls
Again, many will look and say a long ball statistic portrays the problems with Brentford being unable to play imaginative football but in the situation they're in the tactic Frank is attempting to implement here could be necessary for survival.
Brentford haven't had the freedom to play their vibrant football this season due to the long haul of injuries they've faced. This is why as a team that lack confidence playing long but into an area has and could work well for them moving forward. Brentford have registered 1,740 long balls this season which illustrates their intentions to make games scrappy and break up others momentum. The Benefit is that with Ivan Toney, when the pings long are executed well, he has the ability to hold the ball up and bring others into play.
It has gotten to the late point this season where trying to over complicate and play football could be risky for the Bees and whilst they are capable of doing so hitting long balls could be one of the best ways to progress themselves up the pitch and earn results.
As much as statistics can have an effect on the output of player performance it's important the Bees do still keep their same principles. Many believe statistics are illogical and don't contribute anything to the game as of course whose to say the data being obtained is reliable, the information could easily be false.
It is a fascinating topic because it's simple to agree or disagree with statistics. For example, a player could have taken 10 penalties and shot all ten to their left with an 100% success rate. A data analyst will then pass this data onto the goalkeeper whose facing the 11th penalty and they will naturally be tempted into diving right. The penalty gets taken, the keeper dives to their right but the player sticks it to their left for the first time and that blows all the statistical research out the window. So, using this as an example it's inevitable not only fans but coaches don't believe in the influence of data. In the words of Jose Mourinho "People who don't understand football analyse with stats."
Critically for Brentford, stats are important to everything they do from playing football to transfer business, the way they have been able to establish themselves in this division has all been down to thorough research on how to counter act opposition. Now the Bees face the hard task of looking for that advantage again, statistically analysts at the club will cover a vast amount of data in order to prepare the side for their next game. Whilst looking for that edge is good Frank will keep his side grounded and ensure they do remain to keep the game simple as if they do add to much complexity and begin to overplay, confusion sets in and mistakes are made.
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