We may only be at the start of the knockout stages, but it's already looking like AFCON 2024 has all the ingredients for a surprise finalist. A huge number of shock results in the group stages (and a couple already in the knockout stages) have shaped the bracket in a way that a few of the nations considered underdogs at the start of the tournament might just have a chance to go all the way in the Ivory Coast.
The format of AFCON meant that only 8 of the 24 nations who entered the group stages go out before the knockout stages. Despite this, Algeria, Tunisia and Ghana, all former African Champions, went out after their first three games. These nations, especially Ghana, were among the favourites for the tournament.
With three giants of African football gone in the group stages, the door was open for some lower-ranked sides to show their worth and no nation has taken that chance as well as Angola.
Angola are not a nation who are famed for their football. They've never been ranked higher than 45th in the FIFA World Rankings, and are currently ranked 117th. That ranking will be improving however, as a 2 - 0 win over Burkina Faso, who were semi-finalists two years ago, sent the Palancas through to the knockout stages.
This fantastic result fired Angola in to the knockout stages as Group D winners, giving them a favourable last 16 tie against Namibia. Despite the close ranking between the two sides, Angola thrashed Namibia 3 - 0 to cruise into the quarter-finals. Confidence is vital in these tournaments and Angola have bundles of it. They face a potentially daunting test against three-time champions Nigeria, but with nine goals scored already they face a threat to any side. That being said, it would be a shock of an entirely new scale if they were able to knock out the Super Eagles.
Congo DR are proving to be another surprise package in this tournament. The Leopards are ranked 67th in the world, so they're not exactly out of place in the knockout stages of AFCON, but they certainly weren't expected to beat Egypt.
Having held on valiantly to draw 1 - 1 with the 2021 finalists, Congo DR made it through to the quarter-finals when goalkeeper Lionel Mpasi scored the winning penalty in a moment that will go down in AFCON folklore.
The path to the semi-finals isn't all that difficult for Congo DR either, with Guinea awaiting them in the quarter-final after their shock 1 - 0 win over Equatorial-Guinea.
Most of these ties look at one nation who are favourites and another who have managed to pull off a shock result. Angola earned their straightforward last 16 tie with their stunning performances in the group stages, but there is one last 16 tie between two sides who weren't given a second look after the initial draw.
Neither Cape Verde nor Mauritania were expected to make it out of their groups, with Mauritania facing Burkina Faso and Algeria, and Cape Verde being drawn against Egypt and Ghana.
Algeria and Ghana didn't do particularly well in the group stage however, both failing to win a single game. Mauritania and Cape Verde took full advantage. Mauritania came into this tournament having never won a game at a major tournament, a run they ended in style by stunning 2019 champions Algeria. But Cape Verde went one better, beating Ghana, drawing with Egypt and thrashing Mozambique to top what looked to be the toughest group at AFCON.
The big challenge for any of these would-be contenders is knocking out one of the absolute favourites; Morocco and Senegal.
Whilst Morocco did have a blip in their 1 - 1 draw with Congo DR, neither Morocco nor Senegal have looked even remotely playable at their best.
African football has reached a new level in the past couple of years, especially with Morocco's run to the 2022 World Cup semi-finals. Make no mistake, defending AFCON champions Senegal, who were eliminated by England at the World Cup, are of the same level.
Both Morocco and Senegal won their groups comfortably, which is not to say that they're guaranteed anything, but with the two giants of African football on opposite sides of the draw, it does look to be the most likely final.
Senegal's seemingly biggest threat on their half of the bracket were Egypt, but with Congo DR's giant-killing, the most difficult game for the Lions will likely be their last 16 tie against hosts Ivory Coast.
The Ivorians have been very hit and miss and will head into the tie with a new manager after Jean-Louis Gasset was sacked at the conclusion of the group stages. Former Reading and Ivory Coast man Emerse Fae has been appointed to rebuild the Ivory Coast team, but will try to do what he can against the defending African champions.
Morocco arguably have a slightly more difficult path to the final, with an in-form South Africa side awaiting them in the last 16. If they make it through, the Atlas Lions would then face Cape Verde or Mauritania; either way a potential banana skin.
By far the biggest challenge for Morocco though will likely be against either Nigeria or Cameroon in the semi-final. With Egypt out of the tournament, it looks as though three of the four remaining favourites are on the Morocco side of the bracket.
It is difficult to see Morocco or Senegal falling. Nigeria are certainly potential finalists, but haven't shown the ruthless quality of the Atlas Lions so far. On the other end of the spectrum, Senegal have only conceded once.
There are plenty of teams with a chance of making a surprise run through the tournament though. In fact, Angola and either Cape Verde and Mauritania are already on such a run. AFCON 2024 may well have a few more surprises up its sleeve.
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